AI, constraints and citizen developers: Here's what IT leaders expect in 2024
The country's top C-level leaders share their predictions for the next 12 months
AI steals the show, but it's not the only game in town.
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult, but that doesn't stop us from having a crack every December. For 2024, we've asked some of the top C-level IT leaders in the country for their thoughts on what the next year will bring to our industry.
Answers were mixed, although AI unsurprisingly dominated. But there were some surprises, with expectations around regulation, VC funding and future tech like blockchain and quantum. One CIO even expects the AI glut to slow in 2024!
Amanda Brock, CEO, OpenUK
"It doesn't take a crystal ball to know that 2024 will be a year of normalisation of AI at all levels in our economy. The Science-reality of what used to be science-fiction will become accepted. Governments and policy makers will inevitably shift to managing both AI and cyber security risks in a less reactive way.
"Once viewed as the world's leader in regulation, without the stabilising presence of the UK in a post-Brexit regulatory landscape, the EU's paternalistic approach to regulating both cyber and AI is shifting this view and undermining the EU's position. This decline in the EU's regulatory prowess will facilitate opportunities for the UK's regulators to step up.
"The UK has the opportunity and potential to become the world-leader in tech regulation. We're seeing Ministers talk of "flexible, agile, principles-based" regulation - a nod to the language of the tech economy - and also to a light touch approach that will balance citizen protection against encouraging innovation and opening up competition.
"The UK may also benefit from not being dragged down by the weight of "sovereignty" which we have seen set back progress in the EU.
"In 2024 there will likely be a gradual realisation that tech policy and regulation cannot be bounded by geography, leading to a growth in understanding of open source as engagement accelerated by AI openness. In a global tech economy open source spans geo-politics. Increasingly governments must collaborate on tech policy and regulation. AI has been a start-point for this, with open source software being next in line."
Charles Ewen, CIO, The Met Office
"For me, it is the impact that AI will have on all aspects of society. I am hearing many people talk about Gartner hype curves and likening AI to blockchain or the metaverse in so much that it is ‘just' another hype wave. For me, it is much more like the rise of the internet over the late 90's and into the 00's - except that I expect to see that impact play out at about a ratio of two months AI = 1 year Web 1.0. This is in part because of the ‘4th industrial revolution' effect described by Klaus Schwab in 2016 (Fourth Industrial Revolution), whereby existing internet advances combine with emerging AI capabilities to scale instantly."
Katie Gallagher, MD, Manchester Digital; Chair, UK Tech Cluster Group; Founder, NW Cyber Resilience Centre
"Our regional tech ecosystems are still strong and whilst growth has slowed due to the various economic pressures of 2023 they have shown remarkable resilience. The thing businesses most need is stability and consistency so they can feel confident in making plans for the longer term, and hopefully post-election that will happen.
"The Apprenticeship Levy desperately needs reforming to create more flexibility around how businesses can use the money and to make it easier for companies to train and upskill staff.
"In terms of skills and talent, we have definitely seen a reduction in the wage inflation that was driving the market for software developers. This in turn will help startups and scaleups with recruitment of the right tech roles.
"Next year, we will see generative AI built into more mainstream products and services and it will start to reshape a lot of jobs roles including those in tech. We need to ensure that upskilling programmes are in place to ensure employees have the capabilities to work with generative AI."
Graeme Hackland, VP of IT, PlayStation
"Let's see how far I can get without mentioning AI - oops. The most overhyped area of the past few years? I did like the clarity that crept in during 2023 as Machine Learning, LLM, Generative AI and Applied AI were all separated out from the catch-all AI that was used previously. Almost every vendor was claiming AI in their products - this is likely to be more truthful in 2024 (and beyond) - the investment in OpenAI (despite their recent leadership/Board fallout) has been a significant step to accelerating the adoption of AI.
"I was asking a colleague recently - whatever happened to Blockchain? Will it still replace encryption that quantum computing was supposed to render null and void? Oh, and what happened to quantum computing become more commercialised? I expect both of these areas to develop through 2024.
"Finally, aside from my day job - as I have done for many years now - I will be tracking the 'Deep Tech' sectors aiming to make a significant contribution to society. This remains a passion after I worked with Williams Advanced Engineering and saw first hand the contribution technology can make to improving human beings' lives. Advances in clean energy, agriculture and bio-tech should make huge strides in 2024 considering the investment in start-ups in this area. I'm especially interested in seeing if all those who set zero emissions targets for 2030 will start to push that out to 2035 or even 2040 (hopefully we won't let them get away with that!).
"We're in a pivotal few years for Deep Tech to move from theory to products and services, if we are to achieve carbon neutrality."
Kate Philpot, Senior Director, Global Sales Enablement at Getty Images and iStock
"I believe that in 2024 more women will find their voices, regardless of their organisational level. More of them will speak up to challenge the disconnection between what leaders say and do, and I am hopeful that, where they have the courage to foster an environment that enables female voices to be heard, organisations will see the benefits. Only 18% of women surveyed for our research platform VisualGPS believe that tech businesses' communications are diverse, so I am hopeful that organisations see value in ensuring female employees, candidates and customers feel seen.
"And, finally, I hope that more of our allies invest energy in better understanding the issues and concerns women face, notice when women are being sidelined, and step in themselves to support. One way of gaining understanding is to join (or establish) an employee resource group like our Women@Getty ERG, which we launched this year - creating a space for women and female-identifying people not only to connect and encourage discussion but also to celebrate successes!"
AI, constraints and citizen developers: Here's what IT leaders expect in 2024
The country's top C-level leaders share their predictions for the next 12 months
AI steals the show, but it's not the only game in town.
Lesley Salmon, CDIO, Kellanova (formerly Kellogg Company)
"Companies who are creating the guardrails to use with generative AI will win in 2024 and beyond. Building solid foundations around data, ethics, and governance may seem like a slow start, however, it will ultimately allow businesses to scale faster, in a safe and secure way, to drive growth. Gen AI adoption may actually slow down through 2024, but it has acted as a catalyst for companies to relook at their ‘traditional' AI investments."
Mark Ridley, director, Ridley Industries
"2023 signalled a massive about face at the more innovative (move fast and break things) end of tech. The tech giants have seen significant layoffs, with Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta (has FAANG become MAMA?) all losing 10,000 roles or more. But the story is more bleak for start-ups, once the engine room of innovation in tech.
"Before 2023, 'money' was cheap and there was an outrageous boom with cash flooding into venture capital. Now, with high interest rates making money much more expensive, investors are staying away from risky VC investments and moving to more conservative assets.
"With a lack of cash being pumped into the VC market, and the lowest number of US IPOs since 2016 (146 in 2023 to date, versus over 1,000 in the crazy boom of 2021), start-ups are in extreme cost saving mode, trying to save their runway and facing the possibility of investment down-rounds, where they take new investment at a lower valuation.
"Not only are the grass roots of innovation withering, but it seems that larger corporate innovation programmes, like corporate venture capital, incubators and an executive desire to boast about 'moonshots' have also dried up, with enterprises shutting down innovation arms in favour of tried and tested operational improvements. It's only AI companies that are bucking the trend with significant cash injections.
"Against this backdrop and much greater uncertainty from the global economy, significant armed conflict across the world, the real threat of disruption from actual AI, and the ghostly spectre of AGI, I suspect we'll see a continued tightening of belts and focus on operational issues.
"Security spending will continue to be a feature of tech budgets in 2024, with even more sophisticated and nation state attacks becoming more prevalent. We'll probably see an easing of the pursestrings in VC, but the ridiculous upward trend on salaries and excruciatingly tight job market of 2022 and 2023 will have the upwards pressure taken off (unless you're an LLM engineer). Many companies will start to see roadmaps dominated by implementing third party 'AI' products (from the likes of Salesforce, Google and Microsoft), rather than any wild gambles on uncertain R&D.
"The summer in the UK will be wildly unpredictable, but mostly wet."
Pankaj Kane, chief engineer, Admiral Group
"Projecting the future is always a fun thing to do. There are very few Nostradamuses amongst us and therefore we can get projections spectacularly wrong. Fifteen years ago, we were projecting that by now the roads would be full of autonomous vehicles and accident rates would be very low.
"However, the pace of technology innovation, the rate of slow adoption in the large heritage organisations and the lack of real skills allows us to make some safe predictions as we head into 2024.
"Here are my predictions:
- Fighting the last war: Large organisations will continue the struggle to organise for scale, agility and resiliency. Unlike fintech and digital natives, who are set up as exponential organisations, heritage organisations have a linear equation of more output = more resources. The new technologies will be adopted in parts of the organisations with varying degrees of success. Anyone who cracks this conundrum will move ahead of the pack very quickly.
- AI everywhere: An umbrella term, AI is used to denote a vast array of capabilities, including machine learning, deep learning, robotics, natural language processing and neural networks, amongst others. 2024 will see an increase in specific point implementations of these capabilities to solve specific problems. The question of releasing "value at scale" through the deployment of these capabilities will continue to evade many organisations.
- Generative AI in software engineering: ChatGPT was the "iPhone" moment for AI. I strongly believe that this will change the way we use technology not just in our personal lives but also corporate lives. The hype is true. I am especially excited by the use of GenAI in the software engineering lifecycle. It will be used by engineers to write code, use boiler plate codes snippets, improve maintainability of codebase, improve refactoring, migrate from one technology to another, create test cases and test data, improve estimations and predictability - the potential is massive. Organisations will need to solve for security, data control, finding differentiation, managing risk and cost.
- Skills and Capability Gaps: Skills gap will be a significant issue for all large organisations and service providers. The fast adoption of game changing technologies is significantly increasing the cognitive load on software engineers. Similarly, there is a dearth of skills in these new areas ( e.g LLMs, prompt engineering). Organisations will need to invest in constantly upskilling its workforce and adopt practices to reduce this cognitive load. Relying on service integrators, who have the same challenge, will not mitigate the risks posed by the skills gap.
- Challenging External Environment: It will be a tough environment for organisations in 2024 as there are a number of factors that will affect the businesses. A combination of challenging economy with significant cost pressures, new security threats posed by new technologies, regulators playing catch up and still working through the implications of innovations on customers and industry as a whole and finally the rubber hitting the road on the sustainability agenda, will be a tricky environment to navigate for organisations.
"Whilst it may feel all doom and gloom, the reality is that those organisations that can balance these competing factors and deliver superior customer experiences and propositions using technology will thrive. The innovations are game changing and those who can leverage it will succeed."
Roxane Heaton, CIO, Macmillan Cancer Support
"Social economic uncertainties will continue to disrupt lives and business widening inequalities and pressures on ecosystems, such as cyber threats, global unrest, climate impacts and widening service divide such as in the health and social care systems. I pose CIOs will need to increasingly systemically consider, and deliver, sustainable and durable internal and external value for users, with calculated risk on durable long term solutions able to withstand shocks from any direction (tech trends, financial pressures, leaning into bridging inequalities, delivering environmental sustainability, ensuring data and systems are safe and of course supporting colleagues to be as productive, confident, empowered, inspired and as data literate as possible).
"This long term view will help leaders prioritise investments, and choices, across a combination of technologies to best meet emergent user and organisational needs."
Steve Capper, CIO, AtkinsRéalis - winner of IT Leader of the Year at the UK IT Industry Awards 2023
- "Generative AI is gaining considerable attention and I expect it to continue growing in popularity through 2024. Despite its 50+ years of existence, it has only recently become accessible to both technology professionals and consumers alike. While there are many opportunities with this technology, protecting people and data must be a priority. However, it may take years before we can fully understand the negative consequences of AI. As a CIO, one of my primary concerns is how people may exploit the threat on cybersecurity.
- "Several years ago, there was a widespread adoption of cloud technology. As expected, vendors have now begun to significantly raise their prices, prompting businesses to explore alternative solutions and providers. In 2024, all companies will face pressure to trim their operational IT budgets in order to invest in emerging technologies such as AI. This will drive IT leaders to carefully scrutinise the operational costs associated with using the cloud. For example, they will need to assess how to handle stale data and find cost-effective strategies to prevent unnecessary recurring expenses that can arise from leaving data in the cloud.
- "The shift from perpetual and capital expenditure (Capex) models to recurring operational expenditure (Opex) subscriptions has also impacted licensing costs. What used to be a £100 annual expense has now risen significantly to £500, which is a significant cause for concern. To address this, it is vital that we prioritise cost optimisation, proactively scrutinise individuals' software usage, and explore alternative solutions or suppliers. It's imperative not to become complacent with auto-renewals, particularly in light of the growing number of online TV subscriptions that have an impact on our personal lives.
- "From 2024 and beyond, vendors will need to prioritise helping companies optimise their spending, rather than solely focusing on short-term increases that exacerbate customer issues. Vendors must provide assistance to their customers, as failure to do so may lead to customer attrition and long-term revenue decline. In addition, a noticeable increase in vendor audit frequency adds strain to vendor relationships, which are already under pressure due to rising costs. With this in mind, vendors should carefully consider their approach to audits, as they have the potential to elicit a negative reaction from customers
- "In 2024, citizen developers are expected to be a significant trend to watch. These individuals, without formal coding backgrounds, will utilise low-code or no-code platforms to create applications and automate processes. With a growing demand for custom software solutions and a shortage of skilled developers, citizen developers will play an essential role in driving digital innovation and bridging the talent gap. However, proper governance and collaboration between citizen developers and IT teams will be crucial to ensure security, scalability, and compliance. Overall, their potential to revolutionise software development and enable rapid digital transformation will make citizen developers an important area to monitor in the coming years."