Peter Cochrane: AI, autonomous connectivity and machine-to-machine communications is the future of mobile - not folding screens

Smartphone makers may be obsessed with gimmicks, but it is AI and machine-to-machine communications that will drive the next tech revolution, argues Professor Peter Cochrane

Human progress over the past 50 years has arguably eclipsed all that has gone before it in terms of discovery, creativity, knowledge, understanding and physical capabilities to create and build almost anything. Even more remarkable is that all of this progress is essentially down to on one key material and technology: Silicon.

Such a statement of our accelerated progress has no one-line rejoinder, no easily stated QED; it requires a detailed analysis over many dimensions of technology, society and the human condition. But, if we simply want to impress and impact the thinking of others, we can perhaps do no better than quote the availability of the computing power increasingly empowering everything from farming to industry to healthcare; commerce to communication to logistics; government to defence.

A recognisable and impressive benchmark is the Cray 2 supercomputer launched in 1985, only to be equalled by the Apple iPhone 4 in 2010, and overtaken by the iWatch in 2015. Even more remarkable is the latest iPhone which is nominally 250-times more powerful than the Cray 2.

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However, the iWatch, iPhone and iPad enjoy one particular advantage over the Cray 2, and that is - they have legs! They are mobile with sensors that continually gather information about the world around them. Moreover, they learn about our habits and preferences, record all our contacts and communications, store our pictures, videos and search histories, location, travel and more. They also enjoy a very personal relationship with us as their owners.

As of today, the single biggest advancement waiting in the wings of mobility is not folding screens, more apps, bigger, faster and cheaper; it is the inclusion of artificial intelligence, to be followed by autonomous connectivity, machine-to-machine communications, and data/info sharing. This will see the birth of the ‘sociology of things'1 (most likely) on a far greater scale and significance than Facebook, Twitter, SnapChat and other social networks.

At this point, we could ignite facile debates on where all this leads; but a more profitable exercise is to consider what happens when a global population in excess of 10 billion mobile devices start connecting.

Our best estimate of the data processing capability of the human brain is around one exaflop, while today's population of mobile devices is cumulatively less than five zettaflops. That is: well over 5,000-times a single human brain!

Spoiler Alert: The human brain is a quantum-based biological entity that is both analogue and digital at the same time, making an accurate comparison with our silicon digital machines currently impossible. It will remain so until we realise quantum computers. So; we have to settle for an ‘engineering' estimate to give us a ‘ball park' overview.

Given that biological (all?) lifeforms and ‘intelligences' are merely emergent properties of complexity, it is hard to deny that we are not only realising such complexity, but have already eclipsed some bio environments.

The formula, then, is simple:

This is not only a formula for new and unique intelligences, it also embraces the essential components for new lifeforms. By analogy, there is already a general acceptance that biological cells are the smallest recognisable unit of life. They exhibit intelligence, mobility, and a need to communicate with a power to self organise or be organised by external and internal information embedded in the genome. At this point, the similarities with our manufactured silicon environment are glaring.

"All life forms exhibit intelligence"

"Not all intelligences are alive"

Like me, you are probably experiencing a series of random ‘what the heck?' moments when your tech does something new and unexpected that either works well or fails. And, while the fails seem short lived, the successes are quickly accepted, either consciously or subliminally, to become an operational norm and expectation.

This might just be a new era of silicon stochasticism aping carbon life over 3.5 billion years ago, only this time any silicon life/intelligence is not alone, and it has helpers eager to make sure it is not still-born, ie: us.

ProfessorPeter Cochrane OBE is the former CTO of BT, who now works as a consultant focusing on solving problems and improving the world through the application of technology. He is also a professor at the University of Suffolk's School of Science, Technology and Engineering

1 See also, Dr Tom Vine's response to Cochrane's Sociology of Things article