China is not dramatically outspending the US government on AI research

China's public spending on AI research is probably far less than previously assumed

The recent reports of China spending tens of billions of dollars on artificial intelligence (AI) research are possibly overblown, and reports say that the Asian superpower is not dramatically outspending the US government on research and development.

That's according to the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), a think tank of Georgetown University, which claims with 'low-to-moderate' confidence that China's public spending on AI in 2018 was around 'a few billion dollars' - on the same order of magnitude as the USA's planned spending for financial year 2020.

China raised eyebrows when it laid out plans to become 'the world's primary AI innovation centre' by 2030. The country is said to have built AI systems in cities that track human movement through artificial facial recognition, observing citizens' every move throughout the day. It has also developed news-reading robots and announced AI-powered strategy for foreign relations.

During a US Air Force event last year, Lt. Gen. VeraLinn Jamieson said that China was spending tens of billions of dollars in the field of AI research.

"We estimate the total spending for artificial intelligence systems in China for 2017 was $12 billion," Jamieson said.

"We also estimate it will grow to at least $70 billion by 2020," she added.

Last month, a report by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence also said that China was spending more in AI than the US.

These reports about China's investment in the field of AI have led to a fear within the policy community in the US that their country is actually losing in the so-called AI arms race.

But, researchers at CSET hold a different opinion on the issue, claiming that China is actually spending far less on AI than is currently assumed.

The researchers believe that Chinese government's spending on AI R&D probably tilts heavily toward applied research and experimental development, such as robotics research and fundamental algorithm development - not on military-related research.

On the contrary, the planned spending of the US for fiscal year 2020 mostly focuses on defence, and the US is likely to outspend China in that category.

The CSET researchers arrived at their results by approximating the lower and upper bounds of China's AI investments for 2018 and cross-referencing the national expenditure report of China's Ministry of Finance with spending figures disclosed by other government agencies.

CSET also suggests that Chinese government may be investing, at most, a few billion dollars a year in private-sector AI activity through guidance funds - essentially, state-backed venture capital funds.

"However, guidance fund spending is not properly considered R&D spending and is likely overstated," the researchers said.