Peter Cochrane: Technology the magic threat?
The new looms are coming
New technology has always been perceived as a threat to employment, education, living - and even life itself. Latterly, it has been robots and AI that are going to take all our jobs, and at some time soon, turn on us as our ultimate nemesis.
Before that it was 5G radiation that was going to cook our brains and give us all cancer, not to mention autonomous vehicles and Chinese surveillance equipment.
This technophobia almost certainly goes back to the slingshot, longbow and weaving loom, through to gaslight, electricity and the modern era. It appears largely due to endemic ignorance: a lack of appropriate and timely education, insufficient rationalisation and distrust of the protagonists. In the modern era this irrationality is amplified by books, movies, media, social networks, fake news, misguided politics, the self-interests of competitive industries, naysayers and the ever-present technophobes.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic - A.C. Clarke
At the same time, our world is short of people to fill millions of job vacancies, and it has been this way since the industrial revolution. Demographic change and ageing populations are touted as the cause, but advancing technology is actually key. The destruction of old industries and jobs sees the creation of new industries - and far more new vaccines . The solution space is very limited, and we have to automate more, replacing people with robots and AI whilst looking to delay retirement and extend working lifetimes.
Generative AI and its ability to write reports and prose is now creating some excitement, but it is only the tip of the iceberg. Our dependence on robotics and AI is total. Computer chips are designed by AI and produced by robots to power all our appliances and devices. But AI has long been engaged in the design and build of vehicles, aircraft, ships, oil rigs, refineries and power stations. It is hard to think of an industry, institution or endeavour that does not rely on these technologies.
The future trajectory is clear: AI will get exponentially smarter and more adaptable, whilst robots will become more agile and dextrous. But we have been here before. From the 1950s to the 1980s computers were job-specific. They did one task (eg payroll, banking, gunnery) reasonably efficiently. Today the scene is dominated by general-purpose computing, whilst AI and robots remain almost entirely task specific. And this is where humans come in! We are the ultimate general purpose intelligent analogue autonomous "machines".
In short, AI and robots don't cope well with unexpected and convoluted exceptions. They enjoy the regular, routine and expected, and they never tire or err, they are relentless!
We, on the other hand, enjoy the converse, and get bored, tired, lose concentration and make mistakes in monotonous environments. This, then, points toward a new world of working and employment involving a partnership with AI and robot. In turn, it necessitates a revolution in education and training, with AI and robots sharing their learning and experiences instantaneously across a global network. We can thus tap these shared feeds as part of a continually updating our education process.
The only human that likes change is a wet baby - P Cochrane
Perhaps the biggest challenge will be to get people used to the idea that change is no longer a quantised process, it is now a continuum of small "nudges" that are easier to digest and far less disruptive.
It would also be beneficial if people understood more of what is behind the command and keyboard button.
Peter Cochrane OBE, DSc, University of Hertfordshire