Peter Cochrane: Technology is not a threat - people are!
Humanity faces a number of challenges that technology can overcome. Unfortunately, too many of the people in power are also the most ignorant
Throughout my career I have seen UK industry develop world leading technologies only to be curtailed or abandoned by government at some critical juncture.
Others have then stepped in to exploit the opportunities and create new industries in computing, radar, electronics, electro-optics, aerospace, undersea cable systems, computer games, pharmaceuticals and so on.
Today, the UK enjoys significant expertise in biotech, nanotech, materials science, AI, cyber security and quantum computing. So, the big question is, will these technologies mature into major industries, or will the opportunities be wasted like so many that have come before?
Very few UK students opting for science and engineering, with only minute numbers going on to do research
In parallel, significant change occurred in education and training to meet the changing demands of commerce and industry. Today, this sees very few UK students opting for science and engineering, with only minute numbers going on to do research.
In contrast, students from abroad are clamouring for the opportunity to gain a British university PhD. In fact, the leading edge science and engineering research in the UK is powered by overseas students. Much of this has been funded by the EU in concert with numerous continental institutions and companies.
A similar path has been followed across the wider EU without the creation of a single large industry on the scale enjoyed by North America, which shares a similar overseas PhD student profile. In short, Europe has not created an Apple, Cisco, Microsoft, Amazon, eBay or Facebook during the IT revolution of the past 50 years. And, arguably, the UK has led the EU in ‘cyber transformation' and new company creation.
EU regulators seem focused on limiting and penalising the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Apple instead of encouraging competition
Recently, the EU lost its very strong lead in mobile technologies, following the earlier loss of industrial and consumer electronics. As a result, EU regulators seem focused on limiting and penalising the likes of Amazon, Facebook and Apple instead of encouraging competition.
In this context working in Silicon Valley is extremely revealing as those powering the tech developments are notably from India, China and even the EU. These people migrated to ‘The Valley' for the big opportunities: funding; eco-system; freedom; and, a culture that welcomes visionaries, risk takers, and sees failure as a valuable learning experience. In their own countries none of this is celebrated or encouraged, with failure almost as bad as a dose of bubonic plague!
So here we are in 2020, with a precarious world potentially on the cusp of another Middle Eastern conflagration and artificially created trade wars. Global warming and climate change induced weather extremes have become more visible, and there is the potential for an EU break-up following Brexit, amplified by the political tribalism of the US and a general global instability.
This is a time for people to realise that no company, institution or country can stand alone, and globalisation is a necessary - probably inevitable - consequence of our technological progress. Our species will rise or fall based on our ability to share resources, knowledge, solutions, technologies and free trade.
No company, institution or country can stand alone, and globalisation is a necessary - probably inevitable - consequence of our technological progress
Pure protectionism can only make things worse - leading to the denuding of scare resources, increased pollution, and a critical degrading of our global environment to the point where we can no longer avoid significant damage to our civilisation.
The good news is that we have the core material and production technologies to hand (including AI and supercomputers) in order to model, understand, and steer our way out of our predicament. However, the people governing and making all the critical decisions understand none of this! Indeed, at one extreme, some reject all scientific evidence and educated advice or, at the least, they lack adequate or relevant education and experience.
This is the bigger challenge: overcoming human ignorance, hubris and folly. We don't have to worry about AI, robotics and artificial life coming to get us - we have to worry about a few powerful, but ignorant, people!
Professor Peter Cochrane OBE is the former CTO of BT, who now works as a consultant focusing on solving problems and improving the world through the application of technology. He is also a professor at the University of Suffolk's School of Science, Technology and Engineering.