Peter Cochrane: The rise and rise of ignorance
It's not just politicians who are increasingly eschewing knowledge and expertise - business is too, warns Peter Cochrane
The US has been responsible for creating some of the most important products, technology, trends, management and industrial changes over the past 70 years. But more recently it seems to have created a new and surprisingly acceptable trend that I can only describe as fashionably progressive and arrogant ignorance.
The new management mantras appear to be all the things we were taught to resist and discard:
"Don't confuse me with facts"
"I just know these things"
"Just do as I say"
Throughout the West we see a growing pride in being ignorant of mathematics, science, engineering and even technology, not to mention geography, history, politics and current affairs. Probably even worse: knowledge, expertise and wisdom are increasingly derided and mocked.
An entire generation of weapons systems was designed and built without adequately considering cyber security
So, as I listen to pundits proclaiming that artificial intelligence is more dangerous than the atom bomb, and probably the last invention humanity will create, I reflect that the biggest risk is always us, people: our stupidity and ignorance!
All technologies are benign; it is we that design and program them to do the bad and unthinkable. However, in a new strata of hubris I feel the bar has been raised even higher. Here is the headline and three one-liners detailing a very small fraction of a recent report:
"It took nine seconds to guess a Department of Defense weapons system password"
- "Almost all weapons the DOD tested 2012 - 2017 have mission critical cyber vulnerabilities"
- "Using simple tools and techniques, remote testers took control of systems and went undetected"
- "Most alarmingly, the officials who oversee those systems were dismissive of the results"
I'm not prone to panic, but some of the passwords were as basic as ‘admin' with the strongest not a lot better! Further into the report comes this bombshell:
"[It's] likely an entire generation of weapons systems was designed and built without adequately considering cyber security"
Whoops! Weapons systems costing billions of dollars per system look as though they can be disabled, or even turned upon their rightful owners, at the click of a ‘return key'. How the heck did we get here and what is to be done?
In short: extraordinary ignorance, arrogance and hubris has put US (and, hence, UK) security at risk and initiated a new rearmament program that will cost trillions of dollars. But this is being done in such a hurry vast amounts of equipment will have to be procured offshore. Has anybody spotted the risks and irony here?
All technologies are benign; it is we that design and program them to do the bad and unthinkable
This is globalisation promoted by the US Department of Defense and not some Chinese or Russian plot. It is also an absolute necessary and cornerstone of Industry 4.0. No country, no matter how powerful, developed and capable, is self-sufficient in all the minerals, fuels, raw materials, industrial capabilities, academic and research and development facilities they need.
Hence, going it alone is not an option. Countries have to share, collaborate, and trade everything they can. For example, the US doesn't produce silicon or rare-earth metals, and is not (yet) self-sufficient in oil.
I can attest to the disjointed thinking: My small UK company bid for a modest US Department of Defense software contract. But we were told that it had to go to a US company because the contract was too sensitive to entrust to a non-US company.
Weapons systems costing billions of dollars per system look as though they can be disabled, or even turned upon their rightful owners, at the click of a ‘return key'
So, one of the biggest US players snapped it up - and promptly outsourced the lot halfway across the world to a software-development shop that could fulfill the contract for a bargain price.
Where is all this going? The risks and dangers are glaringly obvious, but the politicians have had enough of experts and think they know best. But industry has to work and to survive; it has to find a way, and I watch as they wriggle through and tunnel under the international political minefield to make it all work.
There is no doubt that we are facing an alarming and very dangerous situation powered by some of the most ignorant minds in history.
However, I still have faith in our brightest and best to outmanoeuvre them, especially when they are aided and abetted by AI, vast amounts of information, knowledge, not to mention the best modeling and war-war-gaming capabilities we have ever created.
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