Peter Cochrane: Tech familiarity breeds consent
Nothing reflects how new technology becomes accepted in the mass market than its popularity over Christmas, suggests Peter Cochrane
The Christmas present purchasing cycle has started, with drones, artificial intelligence (AI) devices for home and office, virtual reality headsets, wearables, health monitors, mobiles and headphones all reportedly flying off the shelves of High Street and on-line stores.
Most have passed through the ‘public acceptance cycle' and are well into the evolutionary phase of more for less but faster, smaller and lighter, with better performance.
Drones, in particular, have become a big seller and, today, look more professional with increased flight times, intelligence, better performance and other features to the point where ‘driving tests' and regulation will be mandated by government because of the sheer numbers now being purchased and flown.
In the countryside they are not generally a problem, but in cities, the suburbs, and around airports they can easily constitute a danger.
Within a decade, drones graduated from toy to tool, revolutionising movie making and news reporting while being adopted by the construction and energy industries, along with local authorities, farmers, police forces and planners.
I can't think of a time when people embraced any new idea and/or technology without a degree of scepticism and caution, but the 'acceptance half-life' is definitely shortening
Soon, they may be delivering parcels, while human-size versions will provide pilotless flying taxi services in Dubai. The great unknown is all the innovators in garden sheds - what might they do next? After all, that is where this industry game-changer started, in a garden shed, more than 20 years ago.
In contrast, AI-based speech applications have seen a much slower progression due to the complexity. The journey from the research labs to the likes of Amazon Alexa and Apple Siri has taken more than 50 years of continual software and hardware development. But in the past five years this interaction technology has taken off in cars, TV's, and mobiles.
Indeed, only five years ago I asked for a show of hands at a conference to see how many people were using speech technology of some form, including dictation. I was pretty much alone among an audience of more than 300. As I recall, only five hands went up, including mine.
This week I asked the same question of a similar sized conference audience and about 40 per cent of hands were raised. And, when asked about AI speech services in the home (ie: Alexa and Google Home) the number was around 20 per cent. I suspect Christmas spending on these devices will see these percentages raised even higher.
I can't think of a time when people embraced any new idea and/or technology without a degree of scepticism and caution, but the 'acceptance half-life' is definitely shortening.
Generations of older technophobes are, to put it bluntly, dying off [and] higher proportions of the population are being born into technology
A couple of mechanisms appear to be at work.
First, generations of older technophobes are, to put it bluntly, dying off. Second, higher proportions of the population are being born into technology - if you have children, you have technology and, most likely, the latest technology.
Technology now infuses our lives, companies and homes, and old norms are dying. People often have better technology in their pockets, hands and homes, than in their places of education and work. And the speed of acceptance and abilities are down to the breadth of exposure through social sharing, and, I have to say, the competition of keeping up with the peer group.
"We are now the technology, and the technology is now us"
So, I'm buying a slew of new technology to empower family members from age three to 43 this Christmas. My purchases include everything that is popular by common consent: the market leaders, as well asl novelties made available and affordable by demand.
For the adults, I wish to give them greater efficiency and access to everything, including each other, but for the youngsters, I want to widen their horizon of discovery.
But overall, I want to see them all play - after all, it is Christmas!