US is unprepared for coming AI threat, panel warns

It sees China as the 'most significant challenge' to US technological dominance, suggesting the country will not keep to any autonomous weapons treaty it signs

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) has released a report warning that the US is unprepared for the coming threat of AI, and could soon be replaced by China as the world's AI superpower.

The NSCAI was created two years ago by the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, with a mandate to make recommendations to the US President and Congress to advance the development of AI, machine learning and related technologies to address the country's needs in terms of defence and national security.

Former Google Chairman Eric Schmidt heads the group, with Robert Work, former deputy secretary of defence, as the vice-chair.

'Americans have not yet grappled with just how profoundly the artificial intelligence revolution will impact our economy, national security, and welfare,' says the report [pdf].

'Much remains to be learned about the power and limits of AI technologies. Nevertheless, big decisions need to be made now to accelerate AI innovation to benefit the United States and to defend against the malign uses of AI.'

The panel concluded that the US government is not prepared to defend the country in the coming AI era.

It says China is the 'most significant challenge' to US technological dominance, threatening its military and economic power. The group notes that China has exploited America's lack of comprehensive policies to protect the development of AI and other emerging technologies, and is currently engaged in organised efforts to steal US intellectual property to become a 'science and technology superpower' by 2050.

The 15-member commission recommends several changes that could help shape tech, business, and national security.

It calls for raising annual non-defence spending for AI R&D to $32 billion a year by 2026. It also proposes setting up a council within the White House to analyse technology competitiveness, and to triple the number of existing National AI Research Institutes (currently seven).

In another recommendation, the panel advises the government to take immediate steps to address weaknesses across the American education system, to win the global talent competition. It also recommends creating visas for entrepreneurs and the developers of emerging technology, and to increase the number of employment-based Green Cards issued.

The 756-page report advises revitalising semiconductor manufacturing in the US to ensure that the country is 'two generations ahead of China'. President Joe Biden has pledged $32 billion in support to address a global chip shortage. He also signed an executive order last week to investigate supply chain issues.

The report also urges the government to reject calls for a global ban on AI-powered autonomous weapons, arguing that Russia and China are unlikely to keep to any treaty they sign.

In 2018, China's Beijing Institute of Technology, which specialises in weapons research, was said to have recruited a group of teenagers straight out of school to work on autonomous weapons.

Also in 2018, more than 2,000 scientists working in AI field signed a pledge not to develop or manufacture 'lethal autonomous weapons'. Tesla founder Elon Musk and three co-founders of Google's London-based DeepMind AI subsidiary were among the signatories.