Total revenues from quantum computing services will exceed $15bn by 2028, claims ABI Research

Demand driven by not only R&D projects but the emergence of real-world applications

Total revenues generated from quantum computing services will exceed $15 billion (£11.4 bn) by 2028, analysts at ABI Research have claimed.

This demand will be driven not only research and development projects, but the emergence of real-world applications.

These include advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, next-generation cyber security encryption, traffic routing and scheduling, protein synthesis, and the design of advanced chemicals and materials, the analyst group suggested.

It also forecast that this growth will be mainly driven by applications that require new processing powers that conventional computers cannot handle.

Classical computing is not dead, even in the post-Moore's law era

Despite this, quantum computers will not replace their conventional counterparts anytime soon, ABI Research noted. This is because, unlike traditional devices, which are based on sequential processing principles, quantum computers make use of their strengths from two fundamental characteristics inspired by quantum physics, namely entanglement and superposition.

While this makes them powerful for undertaking certain tasks, they still need to be used for inter-correlated events that are executed in parallel.

"Classical computing is not dead, even in the post-Moore's law era," said the research outfit's principal analyst, Lian Jye Su.

"These machines will remain the ultimate processing power for executing traditional tasks, such as text, video, speech processing, and signal processing, but will be potentially challenged by quantum machines when it comes executing algorithms that require massive parallel processing."

While the organisation predicted how popular quantum computing will become, it is still in its "embryonic stage of development", it added, and thus not ready for large-scale commercial deployment yet.

Quantum computing is currently performed under extreme low-temperature, high magnetic field, and in a vacuum or sterile environment

"Scalability, technology stability, reliability, and cost efficiency are the major factors the industry should address before seeing quantum computers moving beyond lab projects or very restricted and constrained commercial deployment," ABI Research added.

"The attempts to create quantum computers that are stable and have a low error rate require heavy investment in infrastructure, software development, and human expertise.

"The operation of quantum computing is currently performed under extreme low-temperature, high magnetic field, and in a vacuum or sterile environment, making the technology extremely difficult to scale and expensive to operate."

It is therefore not surprising that quantum computing is unlikely to achieve the distribution level of classical computers anytime within the next 10 or so years.

"The technology will remain concentrated in the cloud domain for many years to come," said the researchers.