Davos: World leaders fear cyber attacks more than disease, terrorism or food shortages

High profile attacks like WannaCry have pushed cybercrime into the public eye

The threat of large-scale cyber attacks is now a top concern for the world's leaders - the most likely man-made scenario in the top 10, according to the World Economic Forum, which will hold its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week.

‘Social polarisation' (fuelled in 2017 by Brexit and the election of Donald Trump) was formerly the top risk to stability over the next 10 years. However, hostile hacking has overtaken it due to the growing reliance on digital systems worldwide by both companies and governments.

John Drzik, president of global risk at Marsh USA Inc. and a contributor to the report, said: "Cybersecurity is the issue most on the minds of boards and executives, given the visibility of state-sponsored attacks in an environment of increasing geopolitical friction… Businesses are increasingly dependent on technology and are aware that the openings hackers have are growing. As they invest in things like artificial intelligence, they are widening their attack surface."

The change in perception has been fuelled by recent well-publicised cyber attacks, like WannaCry and NotPetya. The WEF expects the cost of cybercrime to private organisations to reach $8 trillion in the next five years.

Almost two-thirds of leaders expected cyber risk to increase this year. 93 per cent predict an increase in the likelihood of ‘political or trade clashes between major powers', and almost 80 per cent think that war is more likely in 2018 than it was last year.

Cyber attacks, followed by data fraud or theft, were the third and fourth most likely global risks, according to the WEF. First and second place went to extreme weather and natural disasters.

Source: Bloomberg

The actual impact of these technological risks was only middling, and significantly behind the natural threats. The most dangerous threat was ‘weapons of mass destruction', but this was also judged the least likely to occur.

Another hazard is the possible fragmentation of the internet (the USA having already taken some steps towards this with its vote to repeal net neutrality). Moves towards economic protectionism and censorship are forecast, slowing the spread of information around the world.

The WEF said: ‘Governments need to respond by working with technology companies to ensure that internet technologies develop in a politically sustainable way, and to ensure that advances in cyber security governance mitigate the risk of the internet fracturing.'

Other technological dangers were less plausible, including several warnings about AI. The WEF has predicted automated pirate drone ships that could overfish the oceans, and low-level AI software that writes its own code, potentially choking the available bandwidth.