Robots likely to replace low- and middle-skilled workers

Survey finds automation is most likely to affect heavy industry

A study into the historical use of automation and industrial robots has found that companies using such technology can expect an increase in productivity and a possible cut in manpower costs.

However, the study by experts at the London School of Economics and Uppsala University in Sweden, entitled Estimating the impact of robots on productivity and employment said that fears about major job losses are overstated.

They said that robots have moved from the pages of science fiction to the real world and have been viewed as likely to make a huge impact.

But the study found no real empirical evidence of their impact after looking at installations in 14 industries that have run for at least 14 years.

"Recently, robots have emerged from the pages of science fiction novels into the real world and discussions of their possible economic effects have become ubiquitous," wrote authors Georg Graetz and Guy Michael.

"We find that industrial robots made significant contributions to labour productivity and aggregate growth, and also increased wages and total factor productivity.

"While fears that robots destroy jobs on a large scale have not materialised, we find some evidence that robots have reduced low- and middle-skilled workers' employment."

The current use of industrial automation has led to an increase in gross domestic product, and the adoption is viewed as having an impact along the lines of the introduction of railways in the 19th century and IT in general.

"We expect that the beneficial effects of robots will extend into the future, as new robot capabilities are developed and service robots come of age," the report said.

"Our findings do come with a note of caution: there is some evidence of diminishing marginal returns, or congestion effects, to robot use, so they are not a panacea for growth.

"Robots appear to reduce the hours and the wage costs of low-skilled workers, and to a lesser extent middle-skilled workers. They have no significant effect on the employment of high-skilled workers."