Gartner foresees cyber sabotage, tablets galore, and the rise of 'social bots'

Analyst firm has published its predictions for the next four years

Analyst firm Gartner has outlined its top predictions for IT organisations and users for 2011, with online sabotage, tablets and social media all featuring.

"Gartner's top predictions showcase the trends and disruptive events that will reshape the nature of business for the next year and beyond," said Brian Gammage, vice president and Gartner fellow.

Gartner predicts that by 2015 a G20 nation's critical infrastructure will be disrupted and damaged by online sabotage. For example, it warns that if a stock market was targeted it would have long-lasting effects for a country. It compares the significance of these effects to the damage caused to the US by the September 11 terrorist attacks.

The analyst firm also suggests that as the IT services industry matures, it will increasingly become more like the manufacturing industry, where it will transform from a craftsmanship to a more industrialised model. This will eliminate 25 per cent of labour hours by 2015. Cloud computing will accelerate this, as it enables self-service and automated provisioning.

Gartner believes that by 2013 80 per cent of businesses will support the use of tablet devices in the workforce. It argues that at a minimum enterprises will have to offer appliance level support with a limited level of network connectivity, and help desk support for connectivity issues.

It also foresees 90 per cent of organisations supporting corporate applications on personal devices by 2014. Gartner recognises that employees are driving this trend, and that IT will enter a ‘postconsumerisation era', whereby organisations shift from infrastructure and devices to information and interaction with peers.

Social media also features in the results, as Gartner predicts the use of ‘social bots' by 2015. It suggests that by this time 10 per cent of anyone's online friends will be nonhuman, as social media evolves from Twitter and Facebook updates, to systematised and automated social engagement (social bots).