Windows 2000 upgrade will be 'traumatic' says analyst

Windows 2000 migration is the most difficult upgrade since moving from Dos to Windows 3.1 and in some respects even tougher. But it may be cheaper than previously thought.

So says analyst the Meta Group. "Many organisations will find this deeply traumatic," said Meta senior analyst Ashim Pal.

Meta says migration costs will average between $700 and $800 (£433 and £495) per workstation from Windows NT or 9x. These are lower than figures released last year by other analysts, which start just below $1,000.

Meta advises users to avoid migrating this year. "You are likely to have a lot of pent-up demand after year 2000 work, which could well take six to nine months to get under control," said Pal.

Another reason to hold back is the fact that applications written specially for Windows 2000 are only due to be released in the second quarter of this year at the earliest. "When you boil it down, it is applications that will drive users to make this upgrade," said Pal.

The operating system includes major changes, such as a hierarchical directory, as opposed to the existing flat domain structure, and new security functionality. Pal said comprehensive testing will be vital.

Meta's upgrade estimate varies from $250 at a well organised IT shop, to $1,800 for a chaotic one wanting to upgrade swiftly. Factors adding to the cost include older hardware, poor licensing records and multiple versions of software. Which operating system the migration starts from is not a major factor, says Meta.

Even a disorganised firm could cut the cost to $1,200 per desktop by spreading migration over 18 to 24 months, said Pal.

A quick move will require more contractors, more badly timed hardware replacements, and more stress. An Exchange Server could be a good test bed for the move, he added.

Analysts' costs for upgrades include software, hardware, testing, training, planning and deployment.