Is your job at risk from AI? What artificial intelligence means for the enterprise

While AI in the workplace will increase productivity, it will also mean the end for many careers...

It has long been a cliché of science fiction, but now artificial intelligence (AI) is very much science fact.

But rather than being used to create killer robots as seen in The Terminator film series, or the recent Avengers: Age of Ultron movie, the main impact of a widespread introduction of AI - which could happen in the next 10 years - will be on business and productivity in the workplace.

While it might seem like a good idea at first glance, a panel of experts at a recent AI debate had mixed views about what artificial intelligence and machine learning could mean for workers and the workforce.

P45s in HR

There are fears that, although it might lead to an increase in productivity, a lot of white-collar professionals, such as those in accounts, human resources or sales, could become unemployed as AI "hollows out" the skills of a significant chunk of the workforce.

The argument was initially made in an Oxford University research paper, which forecasts that half of the jobs in the US could be made obsolete by AI within 10 years.

However, even if the impact isn't as significant as that, artificial intelligence expert and digital transformation consultant George Zarkadakis argued in the AI Debate, hosted by Click Software, that there will still be big changes in how businesses operate with regard to jobs and employees.

"Even if those predictions are too big, jobs and, in particular, knowledge worker jobs will become lesser jobs as AI systems take over decision making," he said. It is something his organisation is already examining.

"For us it's a very interesting problem because we design job descriptions for companies where we consult with companies about how to manage people and people's careers. But that is based on the assumption that experts will remain experts and they'll remain high value in the future," Zarkadakis said. "This is an assumption which has been challenged because of AI."

Zarkadakis argued that should AI become prevalent in the workplace, it will "change the way we engage with our employers, our jobs, how more frequently it will be necessary to learn new skills or change careers".

Rule-based systems

Dan O'Hara, lecturer in English at New College of the Humanities and specialist researcher into the evolution of technology and its relation to culture, agreed. He argued that a "hollowing out" of staff is looming, especially when it comes to human resources.

"The thing about human resources is they already work algorithmically, follow rule-based systems," said O'Hara, who argued this automatically puts it at risk from AI.

"Anything that's working on rule-based systems like that is bound to be very vulnerable to replacement by AI because it's so easily automatable already," he added. He agreed with Zarkadakis that it will require employees to adapt and huge changes in education.

"The paradox is that the consensus is what we need to be investing in is reskilling people in higher level cognitive abilities rather than replaceable, automatable skills. How are we going to do that? I don't think we're going to be able to do it by automation, I think we're going to need to expand education massively," O'Hara said.

In the event of AI hollowing out jobs, there are also concerns that it might be difficult for organisations to develop leaders with so many professional tasksunder the control of artificial intelligence, something that Zarkadakis conceded "might be an issue".

"Digital transformation is changing the way businesses are working, how they interact with other businesses and so forth," said Zarkadakis.

"There are new jobs, new lines of command and new lines of production which are being created that challenge the old model of the company where it's hierarchical. There are new models and new thinking about how companies should be organised around agile productivity and connections with other companies who produce value in totally different ways," he continued.

"The whole structure of the company is challenged, not just the jobs, but the whole way that we actually deliver value to clients and customers," Zarkadakis added.

AI teaching takeover

Mark Bishop, professor of cognitive computing at Goldsmiths, University of London, and chair of the Society for the Study of Artificial Intelligence and Simulation of Behaviour, warned that there are many in his own profession who are "trying to hide their heads in the sand" because the "lower level teaching that we do can and is being automated."

Bishop described how even complicated and relatively new areas such as machine learning can be taught using automated intelligent tools and said he even uses the technology to teach his students.

"One of the tools I use when I teach is an excellent online resource put together at Stanford by Andrew Ng, one of the top machine-learning guys, called MOOC [Massively Open Online Course]. Anyone can subscribe and do Andrew's course on machine learning for free," he said, predicting that the introduction of AI will send shockwaves through academia.

"When times are hard and you need £30,000 to do a university degree, if you can get that knowledge by just logging on to your computer and using MOOC technology, I see potentially huge changes in education in the fairly near future; in five to 10 years," he said.

Academia is far from the only area that is at threat from the deployment of AI, said Bishop. He predicts that driverless cars will also pose a threat to many working in the transport industry.

"It's quite obvious that companies like Google, Apple, BMW, Mercedes and Audi are putting a lot of money into autonomous vehicles because they see the potential to automate transport distribution networks. There are an awful lot of people who are employed in transport distribution," he said.

"Shipping goods from Leeds to London, if you can get that done by a robot delivery engine, then you're cutting out a significant cost of your product distribution," he said. "I think we'll see automated delivery vans within 10 years."

Artificial intelligence agencies

Bishop also suggested that AI may already be in use by intelligence agencies, such as the NSA, in order to scan communications. "I'd be astonished if they weren't using AI to scan all electronic communication and say, no humans are doing this, it's done by a machine," he said.

But some don't see AI as a threat but, rather, an opportunity. Steve Mason, vice president of ClickSoftware, the host of the AI Debate, believes it represents just another way for organisations to become more efficient, generate business and even to retain jobs that might otherwise have been moved offshore.

"As companies leverage AI to create greater efficiency one of the things that it does is actually secure jobs onshore because people are able to do more. So the benefits of offshoring work to reduce labour costs becomes less relevant because you're achieving that through leveraging technology," he said, arguing that the use of AI enables staff to become more innovative within the business.

"Offshore means there's less work, because the applications are universally available and accessible to all, it means people have the ability to leverage the technology to create new forms of business solutions and transform their own economies with AI and create new types of industry," said Mason.

He described artificial intelligence and machine learning as a "leveller", that will lead to "the generation of greater efficiency and free-up greater resources to go and do other work".

All change

If there's one thing we can know for certain about the introduction of artificial intelligence into the workplace, Zarkadakis said, it's that it will cause huge changes, not only in the enterprise, but for society as a whole.

"One thing is for certain, people's jobs will change, politics will change. Imagine decision-making based on artificial intelligence systems that search data in order to inform parliaments in a much better way about policy. It's completely new and will affect society and jobs," he explained.

"I trust human ingenuity to find a way... and whenever there's been change there's always been opportunity. But I believe the impact of AI will be enormous and it will change, definitely, the way people work," said Zarkadakis.