UMTS will cover all of Europe by 2010

The growth of European high-bandwidth universal mobile telephony services (UMTS) will significantly outstrip services planned for the US, says a report from telecoms consultancy Analysys.

The report, commissioned by mobile internet platform provider 3G Labs, predicts that third-generation (3G) UMTS services will represent about one-third of the total mobile subscriber base in 2006. Steve Ives, 3G Labs chief executive, said the report is the first to look at the growth of 3G handsets.

The number of UMTS handset subscriptions is expected to match that of handsets using general packet radio service (GPRS) technology by 2006. GPRS sits between today's second-generation systems and 3G.

GPRS subscriptions are predicted to decline by 2008. Analysys forecasts that 3G and GPRS will each account for 480 million global subscribers, while existing digital systems will have just 380 million subscribers.

"There's been a lot of questions asked about just how many people will use the 3G services when they are launched over the next few years. As bandwidth increases, subscribers will demand new content-driven services," said Ives.

From 2007, GPRS handset sales will enter terminal decline. Second-generation handsets, in decline from 2002, will completely disappear from sale by 2006. UMTS will have strong coverage in Europe, comparable with Japan by 2010, the report says.

"The explosion in data-based mobile comms will affect not only the type of devices that are shipped, but also the opportunities for new players to enter the market," said Analysys managing director David Cleevely.

"3G licence holders will need to deliver services above and beyond those available today, and to do that they'll need to enlist the help of content providers."

Ives says UMTS technology will roll out whatever the cost. "Hutchison is rolling out a $3bn network in the UK, and capital expenditure is not going to dampen the rollout of 3G," he said.

First published in Computing