Web services will transform IT from a product industry to a service industry, according to Martin Butler, founder and research chair of Butler Group.

He believes that while some internet services will come to the fore faster than others, the overall trend is inevitable. Butler warned that while technology suppliers are rushing into the web services space, Microsoft is trying to gain control through a pincer action.

He said most suppliers openly discuss their sophisticated web services strategies, but added that, in contrast, Microsoft gives out "confusing and contradictory messages".

"Microsoft will not want to tie itself down at an early stage of the web services game," he said. "Bill Gates is said to be an excellent poker player - don't expect Microsoft to reveal its hand until it is certain of winning."

The first side of Microsoft's pincer move is to control consumer services. For instance, Windows XP contains pre-installed user interaction to web service providers. Butler reasoned this is just an indicator of what Microsoft will offer to consumers that use its various internet access devices.

"The operating system becomes a foundation for hundreds of embedded services, many of which will not use the browser as an interface," Butler explained. "Microsoft's control of internet access devices means it can dictate how the consumer interacts with web service providers."

The application server market is dominated by J2EE, with backers such as BEA, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Sun. But the Redmond giant holds a minority share of less than 10 per cent.

Butler argued that to remedy its minority status, Microsoft responded with its second pincer move: an attempt to switch focus from application server technology to user devices. In addition, its Visual Studio.Net ensures that developers around the world will use the .Net architecture.

"Industry observers tend to focus on the web services technology wars, .Net versus J2EE - Microsoft versus everyone else. In truth, this is largely irrelevant; the game is being played at a higher level," he said.

"We shall wait and see whether control of access devices will give Microsoft the power to shape the services that applications will need to deliver."

John Noakes, manager of trustworthy computing at Microsoft's .Net group, admitted its web services strategy had been vague but said it was trying to bring out a clearer message now.

Perhaps forgetting the point about clarity he had just made, Noakes argued that the future will be driven by user devices and then changed tack, claiming that the device did not matter as long as server applications used standards.

"We initially thought from the consumer stand point, but I agree web services have large opportunities in B2B," he said. "Network managers should look at the capability of their network and build web services with the right tool sets and standards, rather than looking at the devices that are out there."Comment on this story
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