E-business bounces back

Rupert Murdoch is hiking investment in online business, so would others be wise to follow his example?

Written by Ken Young

The old adage "once bitten twice shy" is perhaps most true when it comes to financial disaster. Losing millions or even billions after a spending splurge makes even the most flamboyant gambler something of a tightwad the second time around. There's a fine line between successful risk-taker and the proverbial " fool and his money".

No surprise then that few senior managers these days are prepared to go out on a limb and make a claim for a bold new internet strategy. Most bear the scars of the dot-com crash. A week may be a long time in politics, but for many firms five years is nowhere near long enough to forget the pain of losing big on an internet folly.

As a result most firms are bereft of the e-commerce managers, internet strategists, and huge online development teams of yesteryear. The naysayers may feel justified in holding back from investing in internet firms or from backing internet strategies in their own companies. But five years on, a new internet reality is emerging - a reality that demands immediate management attention.

Rupert Murdoch is famed for turning his back on the internet during the height of the boom, then doing a U-turn and spending millions, most of which was good money after bad. Now he is back with a high-profile online strategy that he believes is crucial to the future success of his business.

Murdoch is one of many players helping to heat up internet stocks. Google, of course, has confounded critics and delighted the stock market quarter after quarter. Other hot sectors are internet gambling and leading sites in specific niches such as housing. The UK's Rightmove property web site is planning a stock market listing that could value it at around £200m.

Curiously, many predictions about the internet made before the crash seem to be coming true. Those with "first-mover" advantage are invariably the sector leaders. Whole industries like travel, music distribution, ticket sales, insurance and banking are quickly being changed by online sales cutting out the middle man.

Most firms will, therefore, soon have to dust down that folder marked " Internet Strategy Year 2000" and go into emergency session until they come up with the big plan.

If your industry can be commercialised over the internet, the chances are that non-internet activity will be all but wiped out within 10 years. Telesales and some human contact will be offered, but only to customers who pay extra.

Many firms with poor online capabilities will push up share prices by trying to acquire existing e-commerce firms. Would they do better to revive and expand their own internal e-commerce arms? Many firms fear they will lose out again, and history suggests most traditional companies don't have the cultural mix to be very successful on the internet. Bertlesmann lost out to Amazon, and Blockbuster is losing market share to rivals in online video rental.

It's clearly a dilemma. But firms can't afford to sit back.

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