IT has moved beyond being merely a technical matter

Whether or not IT matters is a crucial question for business, IT and for wider societal and national concerns. Recently, we have seen the emergence of questions about the future of IT. Some believe we have reached the end of IT's growth and development phase, meaning the industry will soon have to settle for marginally profitable maturity.

Has IT really reached maturity? Are there any more big new things coming? What will the next stage of the internet's development bring? Will commoditisation kill the IT department?

Although it's nearly impossible to predict the future of IT, it may be possible to find an alternative to making blind stabs in the dark. It's worth reflecting on some recent research on the impacts of electronic technologies, and use this as the basis for suggesting a fresh framework for thinking through the questions and dilemmas just mentioned.

To understand the concerns usually associated with IT in organisational contexts, it is worth recalling the vast range of questions that face IT leaders with respect to any new piece of IT. What difference will it make? What impact will it have? Will it reduce costs? Will it lead to competitive advantage? Will it facilitate or support strategic change? Do we (really) need it? Should we purchase it or lease it? How do we install or deploy it? How do we support and maintain it?

Answers to these kinds of question are especially important when we bear in mind that a very high percentage of new technology investments fail to meet their objectives in full, many projects are abandoned completely, and only a small number of new systems are delivered on time and to budget.

What is going wrong? A new research perspective suggests that the problem arises because we are stuck with the idea that technology is solely a technical matter. Against this, researchers have been emphasising the social and organisational aspects of technology. This encourages the view that new developments in IT are not simply extrapolations from previous technologies. Instead, new IT has to be viewed as the outcome of a whole series of social and organisational processes. The nature and shape of the IT you get is the upshot of these contingent processes. Also, this new perspective emphasises the fact that the use and effects of new IT is unpredictable and often counter-intuitive.

The first aspect is supported by a wide range of recent studies of the historical genesis of new technologies. Design decisions depend crucially on happenstance, upon the interests and motives of the developers, the alliances they forge with likely customers, what the marketing department tell us about users and so on. The shorthand slogan for this point of view is technology is congealed social relations. Put simply, implicit preconceptions about users - and what they want and need - get built into the technology.

The second aspect is reinforced by findings of recent research into the effects of a range of new internet technologies. Against expectations, many new technologies were not taken up to the extent predicted, nor by the people anticipated, nor were they used in the ways expected. The effects were surprisingly counter-intuitive. Even prior to the dot-com bust, large numbers of teenagers were deserting the internet. New technologies did not displace existing technologies, but tended to sit alongside them (think of the paperless office). And far from ushering in a society based on 'virtual' relations, these new electronic technologies seem to be promoting more of the real activities. For example, it turned out that teleworkers end up travelling more as a result of their increased use of electronic communication.

Perhaps the biggest problem is keeping a level head when others are swept up in enthusiasm for the latest technology. This means remaining aware of the social relations and organisational involved here. It means asking tough questions. Who is telling us this system will do what? Why are they saying that? Who are they trying to convince? It's probably too much to dream that we shall all be able to react sensibly to the next equivalent of the dot-com boom. But salutary reminders can often help. At a national conference of local authority IT Directors a couple of years ago, I was struck by the widespread enthusiasm for the installation of city centre kiosks. ('Sheffield already has them, shouldn't we?') A comment from my colleague sent a shiver down my spine. 'Oh no,' he remarked, 'it's like tower blocks all over again.'

The practical ideas and advice that will resolve the future of IT are still some way off. But if we want to get ourselves into a better state of coping with whatever the future may bring, we need to give serious attention to the idea that new IT should no longer be considered the simple extrapolation of current technical capacities.

What our Agenda Setters think

Paul Coby, chief information officer, British Airways

My core business philosophy at BA is that there are no IT projects - just business projects. Business must use all the tools in the locker to prosper. IT is a fundamental tool and lies behind almost everything we do as an airline. How you put your IT components together is the key - whether they are leading edge technologies like componentised web service BA.com, or legacy print-your-own-barcode boarding pass at home. IT can and should give your business a competitive advantage. I am delighted that many of our competitors believe IT does not matter and is a just a commodity!

Nick Masterton-Jones, IT programmes director, Bacs

'IT matters because of what it makes possible. It is hugely important because of the impact that it can have on the quality of people's lives. From the rapid diagnosis of illnesses to the just-in-time supply of strawberries to supermarkets in January to, dare I say, the secure transmission of money - what IT delivers is now embedded in what we expect out of life.'