Rule out Linux on the desktop until 2005, says Giga

IT decision-makers should avoid 'platform religion' and rule out Linux on the desktop until at least 2005, says analyst Giga Information Group.

Research fellow Rob Enderle told delegates to the GigaWorld IT Forum at Disneyland Paris this week that experimenting with alternatives to Windows could prove a costly mistake.

'It's a high risk strategy to make any decisions based on being upset with Microsoft or wanting to give Linux a chance. This is no time for platform religion,' he said.

Enderle says desktop conservatism should be part of an ultra-cautious approach to nearly all spending decisions.

'One thing you do not want to be is an early mover. You need to learn from other people's mistakes.'

If significant changes are to be made, they should be in places where they were least visible.

'If you're going to make mistakes, you don't want the board or the stockholders to notice,' he said.

Enderle believes the IT decision-maker should concentrate on keeping down costs and squeezing the best possible deals from suppliers, through tough negotiations on short-term contracts and warranties.

'Right now, you need vendors to share as much of the risk as possible.'

We are still in a strong buyers'market, where prices will fall still further and where suppliers are desperate for business, he says.

'All the vendors are hungry and those companies participating in reverse auctions are getting the best deals.'

A practical, pragmatic approach to buying was the key theme of the conference.

In his opening address, vice-president Dan Rasmus said the weak economy dictated an approach based on achieving more business value from less investment.

'We were all hoping this year that we were going to emerge from what we have called the "triage" stage of IT but that's really not going to happen. The money isn't there any more.'

But he says the pressure will still be on IT departments to deliver tangible benefits for companies.

'Businesses are still looking for competitive advantage and are turning to IT professionals. They say they need more but are not giving any more money,' he said.