A broad definition of intelligence might include the ability to learn from mistakes.
But it is equally important to be aware that circumstances that look similar from a distance may be quite different up close.
After the devastation of the IT sector following the dot com crash in 2000/2001 it is prudent to be on the lookout for signs of similarly disastrous exuberance – not least because technology so easily lends itself to hype.
Facebook is a case in point. Barely a day passes without its name cropping up in the media somewhere, and rumours of big firms willing to pay outrageous prices are rife.
Online social networking, and the broader concepts of Web 2.0, are clearly subject to a publicity bubble. But whether an investment boom, and bust, will follow is less certain.
The important point to remember is that the IT sector in 2007 is not the same as in 2000. And that even Facebook is not the whole internet.
When the dot com bubble burst the pop was heard throughout the economy. The problem was that the web was so new that the vision of a changed world it so swiftly created was replaced by an equally violent mistrust. Confidence in technology of all sorts was eroded.
Web 2.0 is undoubtedly full of potential. But it builds on an established basis. Internet technology is now embedded in modern life, in both the commercial and social worlds.
And the IT industry’s offerings are now sufficiently disparate for minor local difficulties in one sector to be absorbed.
The result is that flurries of interest – and even disastrous investments – in individual possibilities no longer threaten the stability of the whole.
Incipient bidding wars for as-yet-unproven businesses may be viewed with distrust. But the Nasdaq is high, “traditional” technology giants are doing well and overall industry growth remains strong.
Social networks may come and go. But the IT sector is smarter now.
