Comment: Is .Net Server delayed by design?

A growing number of financial analysts predict there will not be a significant upturn in the economy until the middle of next year. From Microsoft's point of view this is probably just as well because its .Net Server 2003 will not start shipping until April.

The launch date has now slipped twice - first of all it was expected to ship in the middle of this year, and then by the end of it. However, Microsoft now states that the product will be "rock solid" when it finally appears, and that it is "in the final countdown".

The fact that .Net Server 2003 is still not ready and there are problems to be ironed out is not particularly shocking. The whole software industry is prone to releasing new products that are like a bunch of holes without the colander. Perhaps Microsoft really does intend to buck the trend - a year's delay would roughly equate to the time Microsoft has taken in the past to release the first glut of service packs and patches to achieve a stable platform.

But the delay might also reflect the current lack of enthusiasm among application developers for the dot-Net environment. This would not be surprising - given the state of the economy, many businesses have IT projects on hold until times get better.

Close fight

Analyst firm Gartner Group predicts a very close fight between dot-Net and Java as they vie to become the platform of choice for the development of Web services. By 2005, it expects each platform to have 40 percent of the market. The fact that two platforms are available for Web services may also be encouraging companies to take their time before deciding to back one or the other, or both.

There are indications that even Microsoft has some doubts about whether Windows XP and dot-Net really will dominate the corporate market as planned.

For example, the Gates camp appears fairly concerned by the threat of the rival Linux platform. Some observers say there is evidence of this in the suggestion by the chief executive of Microsoft Israel that users of Red Hat Linux who have obtained the platform through IBM should ask IBM to indemnify them against possible patent disputes involving the software.

Of course, almost any software might become involved in patent disputes and legal problems - the fact is that users, and most other people, have no way of knowing whether this might happen. Should organisations ask every reseller of software to indemnify them against disputes involving all software - perhaps including Microsoft products? Some analysts would say that Microsoft is simply trying to scare customers away from a competitor.

So will Microsoft put firms off moving to Linux? I suspect its comments about Red Hat will have little impact. Many companies may find it easier to port Unix applications - the underpinning of many critical business processes - to Linux rather than Microsoft. And if they move to Linux, they are also more likely to move towards Java rather than dot-Net.

The ideal scenario for Microsoft might be for the economic situation to remain uncertain, because this would probably damage the likes of Red Hat far more than Microsoft. Bill Gates and company would then be in a stronger position to see off their rivals when the good times finally return.

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