Strategy - Welcome to the leisure dome

Once the champagne bottles have been drained and the walking wounded led out with the rest of the millennium party goers, 1 January is likely to be remembered for more than just a giant hangover. It will also be the date when either the year 2000 bug starts to bite in earnest - or when some of the more apocalyptic prophecies made about it prove to be unfounded.

Fears about the millennium bug are estimated to have inflated most IT budgets by at least five per cent, with the result that next year corporate chiefs are likely to demand an equivalent decrease in spending and a shaving of jobs. For IT staff - especially contractors - it could mean a bleak start to 2000. If they have not yet had their marching orders, it might at least be time for many to take stock and ponder the future.

In the US, IT workers have already started to see the dawning of the new millennium as something of a watershed. Six months ago, most firms were able to manacle staff - particularly managers - with high salaries, but this is proving increasingly difficult.

At Microsoft, for example, one in six employees is believed to be a dollar millionaire thanks to stock options. But the company is having trouble hanging on to its high fliers, especially once they have made their nest egg.

Microsoft's home town provides evidence of a deeper restlessness in the IT community. Jobs in Computing, a recruitment company which has made a fortune placing staff in year 2000 projects, is seeing the same people coming back to the agency in search of new jobs. Why? Mainly because they are desperate for a change of scene, reveals company vice president Peter Anderson.

'Some fear their jobs will go anyway once the year 2000 projects are over,' he says. 'Others are positively upbeat about finding a different job in IT after the millennium.'

Anderson also reports a break-out of itchy feet among more senior IT management and expects the exodus to gather momentum over the next few months. 'Before, it would have been hard work to find staff to fill all the vacancies we had. But now people are coming to us in droves,' he says.

Marcus Harris, managing director of recruitment management specialists H20, reports similar restlessness in the UK. Although it is unlikely that IT staff will breach their year 2000 contracts projects, he too has noted a recent upsurge in people looking for work. 'The number of jobs is falling and there is a temporary excess of IT people in the market,' he says.

Harris believes this is because IT people have been looking nervously at next year's job market and fear it might be hard to find a job - with some justification.

'There will be a glut of IT people in the job market during the first quarter as year 2000 projects draw to a close,' he warns. Most firms will be rolling out new projects once they have dealt with the millennium bug, but it will take some time to get these off the ground, and it could take several months for the job market to pick up, he predicts.

'The industry itself is responsible for this situation because of its obsession with solving the year 2000 problem by throwing so many staff at it. But it has been at the cost of many other important projects,' Harris says. If companies have any sense, they will swiftly absorb their year 2000 staff into new projects before they lose them, he adds.

The contractor market is expected to suffer particularly badly from post-year-2000 syndrome. Harris says: 'The market has completely absorbed all the contractors available in its efforts to plug skills gaps. But after the year 2000 crisis is over, many of these will be catapulted back into the job market.'

He has also noticed that a large number of contractors are considering coming in from the cold and taking up full-time jobs before freelance work dries up. Peter Scott, a Cobol programmer from Colchester who has been contracting for more than six years, is typical. 'It doesn't take much to see the writing on the wall for contractors post-year 2000,' he says. 'Next year's job market will be too cut-throat to be economically worthwhile.'

Scott thinks things will improve for contractors within a year or two, and that in the meantime, it is a good idea to have a guaranteed job.

While the short-term future may look bleak for contractors, some in permanent management roles are seeing the millennium as a golden dawn. Web-based and network management companies are expected to see a boom and many middle managers are moving towards these areas in the hope of cleaning up.

Certainly, the networking service job market is booming already and shows no sign of letting up. According to figures from employment market researcher MMS, based on newspaper and magazine ads, salaries for networking experts are showing a dramatic increase on previous years.

On average, it says, more than 865 network jobs are advertised in the UK each month - nearly 50% more than two years ago.

Harris believes that many companies will attempt to roll out NT5 as soon as the dust has settled on year 2000. This will leave openings for project managers as well as NT technicians. He also predicts a lucrative future for those with web and ecommerce skills.

Sharon Saw, head of consultancy Saw IT, believes that many IT managers will see the millennium ss a good time to branch out. 'Managers on the ground floor of such a boom will soon find themselves at the top of their own companies with telephone number salaries,' she says.

As more companies make IT a key part of their strategy, many senior IT managers in such organisations will feel that they are empowered to make a difference, according to Saw. 'It will strip a management layer away from some companies, leaving the middle managers in a position of strength,' she predicts. She adds that these people will move into senior roles to replace those who have gone into business for themselves.

'These management changes will be the early signs of considerable expansion of the IT sector during the first decade of the new millennium,' Saw notes.

In those first few years, many senior and middle management staff will be sucked further up the career ladder and away from their technical skills, she believes.

'The careers market abhors a vacuum, and technical staff will be enticed into middle management roles to fill the gaps.'

'But when the game of musical chairs has ended, there will be a huge technical skill shortage. Firms crying out for technical people to run their new Internet and network projects will find that they've become middle managers.' This skills crisis could be avoided if companies are more willing to hire people with technical skills, even if they are inexperienced.

Harris says companies may have made the problem worse by cutting back on staff development programmes during the millennium bug turmoil. Harris, whose company advises on training issues, notes that very few companies have sent staff on training courses during this period.

But if the private sector finds itself in trouble, those in the public sector could be much better off. Bob Griffith, national secretary of the Society of IT Managers (Socitm) says that thanks to the so-called 'Better Government' initiative, many local authorities and government departments have been upgrading their equipment, setting up ATM multi-media networks and superfast, interactive databases.

Griffith thinks that once millennium bug fixes are completed by around the middle of next year, many IT people could be drawn into the public sector to get their hands on these new technologies. 'These projects have been introduced alongside year 2000 upgrades,' he says.

Nor will training pose a major problem for the public sector. 'In the past year, many local authorities have been grooming their IT staff for more senior roles and have been particularly interested in developing Internet skills,' he says.

Griffith acknowledges that public sector workers still earn slightly less than their counterparts in private industry, but says pressure is building for wage increases.

But what about IT staff who see the new millennium not just as a time for a change of job, but as a time to bail out of the industry altogether?

According to a recent survey at the George Mason University in the US, more than 56% of IT people wish they were working in another industry, preferably a non-technical one. The survey reveals many would prefer to work in the arts and more than a quarter would be willing to return to university to achieve their aims.

While many of these people clearly want to balance their lives, others merely want to escape what they perceive as the rat race.

'After 10 years as a programmer I felt that enough was enough,' says Rachel Collins. She left her job in Bristol to be self-sufficient on a small farm on the Scottish island of Mull. 'I like to believe that humanity is moving into a more creative time at the turn of the millennium and I don't see why people shouldn't be happy in their jobs,' she says.

A more high profile case recently was that of Nomura's chief administrative officer Geoff Doubleday, who took surprise early retirement at the age of 50.

His decision came a year after completing one of the largest and most ambitious projects in the City, an object-oriented client/server infrastructure for the Japanese investment bank. 'The project is finished, and now I just want to have more time to myself,' he says.

ARE YOU LIKELY TO MOVE ON?

Career psychologist Mark Stancliffe believes the new millennium could persuade many to re-evaluate their standards. 'For some, it will be like a mid-life crisis,' he says. 'People will feel they have to do something better in the next century.' If you suspect it's time for a change, ask yourself the following questions.

If you answered no to six or more, then it's time you looked at starting a new career, or working for a new employer, says Stancliffe.

Do your ideas get accepted?

Is your company doing well?

Are you happy in your work?

Do you like the people you work with?

Will your company allow you to reach your career goals?

Do you think the work you do is appreciated?

Have you attended any courses in the last year?

Is your work creative?

Do you have as much responsibility as you want?

Do you think your work is important to your company?

Are you learning anything new in your job?

Do you have the chance to take on more responsibility and earn more money?

Are you happy with the stress levels you are under?

Do you feel your job is ethical, and if not, does it bother you?