The wireless route to high revenues

For all the benefits and efficiency savings that wireless working purports to bring, one thing remains an absolute certainty: it represents a massive earning opportunity for everyone involved.

Data from researcher Analysys has revealed that overall revenue from mobile voice and data services is set to reach €130bn (£80bn)by 2006, up from €95bn in 2001.

Interestingly, the data shows that voice revenues will actually fall, supporting minority industry claims that voice telephony revenues have peaked.

Instead, growth will come from data services and mobile commerce, boosted by a rising take-up of GPRS and the implementation of more sophisticated billing systems and pricing structures.

Per user averages

The Analysys research focuses on the potential average revenue per user that operators can attain from mobile data services, content providers and commercial bodies such as retailers.

It suggests that data services and commerce transactions are likely to move away from GSM and over to GPRS, with modest growth expected in the first two full years of third-generation (3G) operation.

Predicted revenues for every megabyte of data sent look very promising for those companies planning to make money from online content and sales.

Revenues from mobile commerce traffic is expected to hit €34 per megabyte by 2003, reflecting an expected sharp rise in the use of mobile phone devices and cellular-enabled laptops to conduct transactions.

Wap-based commerce services remain few and far between at the moment, but they will develop as more suitable devices and faster data services, such as GPRS and High Speed Circuit Switched Data, come to the fore over the next 12 months.

But there are significant variations in the amount of revenue that can be extracted from the data transferred by either the operator or the content provider.

"An important factor that contributes to the differences in average revenue per megabyte expected from different service categories is the willingness of the end user to pay, which varies across service categories, market segments and countries," explained Katrina Bond, author of the Analysys Pricing GPRS Services report.

Research by Marcus Evans Analysis has suggested that, by 2005, 42 per cent of mobile phone network users will still be using 2G GSM networks; 47 per cent will have migrated to GPRS-based services; and the remaining 11 per cent will form the early adopter group for 3G.

Wireless Lans

A similar revenue scenario looks possible for wireless local area networks (Lans). BT has recently announced that it is to install and operate commercial public-facing wireless Lans in major business districts and metropolitan consumer areas. Initial estimates suggest that it may be worth about £30m a year.

Analysys believes that as many as 95,000 commercially operated access points across Europe could be in place and operational by 2006. Of these, the majority will be sited at airports and conference centres, and 95 per cent of each type of site is expected to be equipped with access points by 2006.

The average revenue per user figures for wireless Lans are comparable to those expected for future mobile data usage.

Analysys figures place the expected revenue for public wireless Lans at €300 per user per year by 2006 for corporate users, compared with €200 for small and medium-sized businesses and €100 for consumers.