Editor writes: it won't be a disaster

It's good news that the Computing Year 2000 Confidence Index is up again. After reaching an all-time low in August last year, the index stands at its highest level since we began it a year ago.

The fact that the group of experts and IT directors who help compile the index are feeling ever more optimistic about the outcome as the deadline looms closer is welcome.

Why they are feeling more optimistic is hard to gauge, but we know that many of those involved have already supervised the completion of year 2000 projects within their own businesses.

But while the industry is becoming more optimistic, the public at large appears to be catching the millennial panic. According to a survey of public opinion conducted on behalf of ICL, most people believe the millennium problem poses a threat to the public sector - and a third believe it is a threat to public safety.

ICL used this survey as an excuse to call for year 2000 glasnost and for everyone to be frank and open about the problems.

Sounds familiar? It should do, since for the last year Computing has been calling for industry co-operation in solving the problem.

In large measure the industry has done exactly that. We are seeing the results in increased confidence, among those who should know, that the year 2000 will not be a disaster. There will be problems, but not a disaster.

Given that, there is now no point in anyone trying to stoke up public panic on the issue.

Bite the euro bullet
The average IT director is going to have to become a europhile. 'Forget personal politics and plan for the euro' is the best advice we can give.

How can you plan for such an uncertainty? Easy. There are three possible scenarios. The UK goes in. The UK does not go in. The UK does not go in and the euro falls apart.

The most difficult scenario to plan for, and the most expensive, is the one which says we go in. So plan for the most difficult one, bearing in mind especially that if we do go in, it will be on an accelerated timetable.

The other important piece of advice is to consult your peers. Just as with the year 2000 problem, all the signs are that the best course of action is for everyone in the industry to compare notes.

It's not easy, but you know it makes sense.