Analysis

SCO is set to announce an alliance with Intel and Compaq that will,race for data centre space. in effect, make SCO Unixware the focus of efforts to build an Intel-based data centre solution for the mainstream.

This has numerous implications, the most obvious being that, in the near term at least, the emphasis for large systems remains on Unix rather than NT.

But is the Unixware project just a convenient stopgap while Microsoft plugs the deficiencies of NT on high-level processors? Or is it something that could stop NT in its enterprise tracks for a longer period of time?

SCO and Intel will announce a deal, along with Compaq, Data General, ICL and Unisys, to plough millions of dollars over the coming year to make SCO's Unixware a full data centre operating system, with all the scalability, management features and security that former mainframe users demand.

The money spent seems to provide some evidence that NT's rise is not inexorable. At the end of February, Compaq was crowing over figures that put its Intel-NT workstations for the first time ahead of Sun's Sparc-Unix ones in the league tables. Sun cried 'statistics', but its stand in the market has been less black and white ever since it signed its own deal with Intel last winter.

The agreements are closely related, of course. That Sun has decided to make a major push on an Intel platform is significant to its user base but hardly unexpected. Intel's eagerness to get first Solaris and now Unixware onto its Merced chip does not indicate a company that believes NT is the only flavour of the future.

This will be a comfort to some Unix users who have felt besieged by the wave of support for NT. Only a few weeks ago, electronic design software house Synopsys abandoned its Unix-only strategy to announce chip design products for Wintel workstations. Synopsys may operate in a niche market, but its conversion was symbolic. It was one of the very few software companies that had stubbornly held out against Intel/NT, and its change of heart shows that NT is starting to make inroads.

It also shows why it was imperative for Sun to adopt the Intel architecture.

Sun's workstations are by far the most commonly used for Synopsys applications, and the Independent Software Vendor's (ISV) switch of loyalties epitomises the threat Sun has been under from Intel/NT.

Diane Worstman, director of Intel's workstation group, claimed Synopsys (and other makers of tools that require heavy duty computing power) have been able to move to Wintel far more quickly than Unix supporters had believed possible.

But NT is almost a red herring here. It has been carried along by its marketing hype and fast growth, but has often been riding on the coat-tails of the Intel architecture, which is itself inextricably associated with Windows and NT. Without Intel's move up the IT food chain, it is arguable that NT would never have stepped out of its departmental server heartland.

Which is why the agreements with Sun and SCO over Unix should scare Microsoft more than many NT supporters will allow. Intel's goal is to get into the data centre and have its chips inside the most vital computers in the organisation. Intel does not care which operating system gets it there, and for now at least, it seems to believe Unix will be a faster route.

"Intel does not care who wins," said Mary Hubley, research director at the Gartner Group, "as long as Merced does."

Hubley believes NT will not be enterprise-ready as soon as Merced, but with OEMs due to receive samples this summer, the task is becoming urgent.

The logical choices are Solaris and Unixware. SCO has the greatest experience of building Unix for Intel platforms and has close relationships with many Intel server makers - and no hardware of its own to muddy the competitive waters. Solaris has the greatest installed base and market clout. For Compaq, its role in the new SCO partnership may signal a distancing from the Unix variant it now owns, Digital Unix.

The lesson for Microsoft will be to make NT enterprise-ready as rapidly as possible. Its key allies, including Compaq and Intel, have no wish to be beholden to a single OS supplier and will actively pursue any software strategy that will guarantee sales of machines based on Merced and other Intel platforms. With even Sun lining up behind Merced, Intel is now in a far stronger position to dominate the enterprise than Microsoft.

Its marketing machine will not be enough on its own to assure success for NT in this Intel world, but it has the advantage of money and market clout to push its product. SCO, with its lack of hardware revenue, has always been dependent on its changing industry partners. But at least its deal with Intel proves there is still a choice in the data centre space.