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Gates: we have only begun to see the potential of digital technology

The revolution is only just beginning

The next 10 years will see IT transform the way we live our lives, writes Microsoft chairman Bill Gates

Written by Bill Gates

The advances of the past few decades have laid the foundation for much more profound change

Bill Gates chairman, Microsoft

People often ask me if we’re nearing the end of the digital revolution ­ if technological progress is at a point of diminishing returns and the personal computer has reached the apex of development.

I believe the opposite is true. In many ways, the incredible advances of the past few decades have just laid the foundation for much more profound change.

In the years to come, hardware will continue to improve, often in dramatic and surprising ways. And software will continue to advance as we develop new approaches to take advantage of multi-core processors, expanded storage, and more pervasive broadband access. Together, hardware and software will be the catalyst for advances during the next 10 years that will far exceed those of the past 30 years.

Soon computing will be available everywhere ­ throughout the office and the home; in your car; in shops, restaurants and public spaces. We will access computing capabilities on a wide range of devices, often taking advantage of nearby displays and projection surfaces.

Meanwhile, the proliferation of massive datacentres and the increasing ubiquity of broadband networks will create a fabric of capabilities that extends seamlessly across our lives at work and at home, from any location.

A combination of powerful software on individual devices, services running on the web and huge amounts of storage via the internet will make all your information instantly accessible.

Soon, you will be able to call up any documents or media files that you’ve created or saved, using anything at hand ­ whether a PC, a mobile phone, a TV, a portable game player or a music device. Your preferences, contacts, calendars, and applications will be seamlessly available, and the way information and features are presented will automatically adjust to deliver the best experience for the device you are using.

These changes will have a dramatic impact on business.

New IT tools are enabling firms of all sizes to streamline communications and collaboration, simplify processes and provide employees with instant access to the information they need.

We are closer than ever to realising our vision for information systems with the flexibility, intelligence and self-awareness to adapt automatically as business conditions change. Such systems will deliver precisely the information, services and applications that employees and customers need, when and where they need them.

Technology is also changing the way people live ­ the way we share experiences and communicate with the people we care about; the way we preserve memories of past events; the way we access entertainment; the way we learn; and how we use healthcare. Put simply, technology is transforming the way we interact with each other and understand the world we live in.

The ubiquity of software, devices and connectivity is providing a platform for rich and complex social communities that are central to the way we satisfy the universal desire for human interaction. The popularity of online services such as Xbox Live, Windows Live Spaces and Facebook demonstrate the powerful appeal of technology that enables connections and community.

The transformation will pick up speed as the way we interact with technology evolves to more closely resemble the way we interact with each other. Cheaper, more powerful computing has helped solve problems such as voice and handwriting recognition, and we are beginning to see the emergence of interfaces that incorporate speech, handwriting, vision, touch, and gestures.

We will also see rapid progress in display technology. During the next decade, screens will become cheaper, lighter, more portable and more pervasive. In the future, we will link our portable devices to nearby displays or project information onto nearby surfaces. The combination of new input and output mechanisms will have a revolutionary impact ­ not only on how we interact with technology, but how we interact with each other.

For Microsoft, Europe will continue to play a critical role in developing next-generation technology and bringing it to market. We have 12 research and development facilities in Europe, and more than 2,000 researchers and engineers working on projects from machine learning and computer vision to the development of new programming languages and new approaches to information retrieval.

At Microsoft Research in Cambridge, our Computational Ecology and Environmental Science group is focused on developing new tools and methods for predicting and mitigating changes to the natural environment.

When Paul Allen and I founded the company more than 30 years ago, our dream was to put a PC on every desk and in every home. Today, about one billion people have a PC. That is a large number, but it is a fraction of the world’s 6.6 billion inhabitants.

As we make technology more affordable and simpler to use, we extend the opportunities that come with better access to education, information, healthcare and global marketplaces.

As more people participate in the knowledge economy, the result will be innovations that make everyone’s lives richer, more connected, more productive, and more fulfilling.

I believe this will be the biggest change during the next 10 years ­ the expansion of the digital revolution to people who are not yet able to participate in the knowledge economy.

We have only begun to see the great potential of digital technology. I am excited to see what the future will bring.

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