Berners-Lee warns of changes ahead

Businesses must adapt to the rapid evolution of the internet if they are to remain competitive, says Sir Tim Berners-Lee, creator of the world wide web.

Berners-Lee told Computing that the internet is no longer just a technological tool and is developing into a social phenomenon that presents new challenges to businesses.

It will require IT directors to develop expertise in such varied fields as economics, sociology and psychology to maximise their success online.

‘The web has developed from a technological tool, based on technical protocols, to something that also combines social rules,’ he said.

‘The internet is based on a series of microscopic rules that combine to affect social behaviour on a macroscopic level, though we do not yet understand how this works.’

Berners-Lee cites web-based companies such as eBay and Amazon as being among the first to achieve significant success online by capitalising on the social and technical factors.

‘A site such as eBay is designed and built using protocols such as the mechanisms to identify its users, determine reputations and make payments,’ he said. ‘However, it is also based on a social system of buying, selling and reputation.

‘It was designed to work for two people, but because eBay got the microscopic design right, it created a new market that works on a large scale.’

Web 2.0 initiatives such as social networking sites have also been technically designed to define the way people talk to each other, but have grown to form macroscopic communities.

As the web continues to develop, businesses will need to become experts in the web psychology behind such phenomenon to achieve similar success, says Berners-Lee.

‘The web is inextricably linked to economics, but the decisions people make when they are online is made by an individual,’ he said. ‘This is web psychology and IT directors will need to understand this in the future.’

Some businesses are already tackling the changing nature of the web, says Jeremy Beale, head of e-business at employers’ body the CBI.

‘More businesses are investing in customer relationship systems to develop a better understanding of what the customer wants, including the social characteristics of e-commerce,’ he said.

‘Some companies are putting resources into learning how people use the web but it is still at an experimental stage and we do not yet know what will come of this.’

Beale does predict a transformation in the role of the chief information officer, who could be required to link IT departments with other divisions such as marketing and human resources.

‘The nature of people being employed could also change, with creative and social skills becoming more valued,’ he said.

‘It could mean less of the geek in the back office and employees working on the front end, communicating directly with customers.’

Beale says some companies are already getting to grips with changes on the internet although it is not yet at the top of many business agendas.

Futurologist Chris Yapp says the internet is already changing business models and the role of the IT director is much more complex than it was five or 10 years ago. ‘In the past, businesses were paid to provide a service but now they are increasingly being asked to provide the tools so consumers can do it themselves,’ he said.

For example, Amazon not only sells products to its customers, but generates recommendations for similar products a customer might like to buy. This tailors the service to the individual rather than the mass market.

‘The difficulty for IT directors is that the market is changing so rapidly that many do not have the necessary skills to design a successful web site in-house,’ said Yapp.

‘The awareness of new technology is there, but whether IT directors understand the implications and whether it is a top business priority can vary.’

Berners-Lee says social impact will be one of the biggest changes to affect the internet in coming years, alongside development of the semantic web.

A vision created by Berners-Lee, the semantic web is a system where information is part of the web and can be automatically accessed and processed by computer programs.

This is in contrast to the web, which contains information in the form of documents that must be read and interpreted by humans.

Butler Group senior research analyst Richard Edwards says the semantic web will allow computers to search inform-ation through content rather than words.

‘Consumers will be able to combine information from different sites and develop new applications,’ he said. ‘Companies are beginning to get to grips with it and it is gradually evolving to allow exciting applications.

‘Many businesses are looking to use the technology on the web and those with a strong web presence will be early adopters of the system.'