In his prophetic book 'The Shape of things to Come' published in 1933, H. G. Wells wrote: 'It is remarkable to note how long mankind was able to carry on without any knowledge organisation whatever. ... Nor was there any conception of the need of a permanent system of ordered knowledge, continually revised, until the 20th century was nearing its end. ... To those of an earlier age our Fundamental Knowledge System ... with its special stations everywhere ... would have seemed incredibly vast.'
Wells seems to have come very close to predicting what we would now recognise as the broadband accessed Internet. For those, like me, who believe implicitly in the importance of this to the UK's economic development, the last few months have been a bit of a curate's egg - good in parts.
First the good news...
UK broadband connections are now approaching 3 million, with a further one million narrowband Internet users expecting to switch to broadband in the next year. BT has announced trigger thresholds for a further large tranche of semi-rural exchanges. In urban areas we are seeing strong, facilities based, competition between xDSL and cable services with a useful goad provided by radio fixed access. Even in rural areas, self-help solutions, based on Wireless LANS, and the potential of 'thinking outside the box' solutions like radio fixed access delivered from Low Altitude Platforms (tethered aerostats) will eat away at the new 'digital divide'. The combination of affordable broadband access to the homes/SMEs and low cost Wireless LAN internal distribution are turning the theory of 'always on' into the reality of 'always available' - driving fundamental changes in usage.
...But also the bad news
Based on studies carried out by the trade association Intellect, supported by Intel, it seems that SMEs in the ICT sector are dividing into two camps. Those that have installed broadband access and are great enthusiasts for its benefits, and those that see no reason to be interested in even testing broadband out. It is true that not all SMEs will need broadband access to sustain and grow their business. But I would suggest that those who cannot benefit from broadband are very much the exception rather than the rule... If this one sector is representative of SMEs as a whole (and if anything it ought to be more enthusiastic for broadband), then a major part of the UK small business base could be seriously, perhaps fatally, late in picking up on the cost savings, efficiency improvements, enhanced staff satisfaction and business transformation opportunities already being experienced by their peers.
What are the benefits?
NOP, who carried out the for the Intellect/Intel survey, were amazed at the satisfaction ratings amongst existing broadband users. On a scale of 1 to 10 (ten most positive) SMEs scored the importance of retaining their broadband connection at 9.4. Ease of integration scored 8.5. Effect of staff satisfaction scored 7.3 and effect on staff productivity scored 6.8. Similar satisfaction is shown by home users with 60 per cent very satisfied and 34 per cent quite satisfied.
It seems clear that to achieve this level of satisfaction both home and SME users must believe that they are extracting value substantially beyond the tariff cost. This accords with the personal test I have carried out on conference audiences asking how many users would give up their broadband access if the cost was doubled, or trebled - typically none. Yet some 48% of ICT sector SMEs surveyed did not have a broadband connection and less than 20% of these non-broadband SMEs planned to adopt over the next twelve months. Why? Much of the answer may simply come from the sheer pain and grief of running a small business. In the words Henry Kissinger once used about US Foreign Policy: 'the urgent often pushes out the important.'
What needs to be done?
The only voices that can cut through the urgent to explain the important are those of other SMEs in that business community. Those SMEs who have adopted affordable broadband and are reaping the benefits should go out and evangelise amongst their business peers. Otherwise for a sizeable proportion of our SMEs will fail to realise H.G Wells dream and instead snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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